“Fifty percent of e-commerce happens on mobile devices in 2013,” said Scott Raney, a partner at Redpoint Ventures, when asked to go out on a limb and predict next year’s big surprise in mobile telecoms at the annual Wireless Communications Alliance’s venture capital evening. His fellow panelist didn’t cut off the limb, though. Quite the contrary.
“A large e-commerce player will get to 50% in 2013,” said Kevin Talbot, co-founder and managing partner of Relay Ventures. “I know who it is.”
The event took place on 14 November 2013, a week and a half ahead of Black Friday and Cyber Monday. It’s dangerous to make wild predictions that could be debunked while memories are still fresh, but Raney and Talbot had nothing to fear.
Showrooming – going into a store, finding what you like, then finding a better price online – is helping to push consumers toward mobile purchases, and could account for mobile’s higher share on Black Friday, when shoppers are in stores and not at their computers. “It drives Best Buy crazy but it provides such value to the user,” said Tae Hea Nahm, founding general partner of Storm Ventures.
Year on year, Adobe says mobile doubled its share of online transactions over the opening weekend of the holiday shopping season. In 2011, mobile accounted for 13% of online sales on Black Friday and 11% on Cyber Monday. Do it again next year and mobile will account for near enough to half of e-commerce dollars.
Tagg is a mobile pet tracker and promising veterinary diagnostic tool, offered by Snaptracs, a Qualcomm subsidiary. The hardware costs $100, with ongoing service at $8 per month for the first pet and and $1 for each additional one.
That eight bucks gets you a text message whenever your dog strays from home, with GPS feeds to help you find him. Or your cat, if it’s one of the few big enough to handle the weight and tolerant enough to wear it.
It also lets you analyze the GPS and accelerometer data it collects all day to assess his activity level and give you a rough indicator of his overall health. The online analysis can be passed on to your veterinarian for assessment.
It’s popular enough that Snaptracs is wholesaling the hardware to vets and using them as a distribution channel. But Snaptracs is missing a bet by not including them in the ongoing revenue stream.
True enough, Tagg isn’t any use without an ongoing subscription and it’s a new enough product that early sales growth will swamp anychurn at this point. But the novelty will wear off and the actual utility will diminish in value: most dogs don’t often stray far from home (although the ones that do can lead you on a merry chase) and you don’t really need daily confirmation that he’s getting his usual 16 hours of sleep. The business model is heading toward an annual churn rate north of 50%.
That’s where vets can help. Use more of the sensors on the chipset – thermal and audio, for example – to monitor vital signs, mine the data and pass it on to vets. They can tell you when your dog might be having health issues and be frontline churn fighters. And the more skin they have in the game, the more enthusiastically they’ll fight. Right now, they don’t have any.
Snaptracs is working on the technology needed to boost utility, but not as yet on the business model. Parent company Qualcomm is a dominant player in mobile hardware and intellectual property with a poor track record selling services and content. To turn that around, they need to give their distribution channel partners a reason to help.
21st Century retailing will be governed by a new Iron Triangle:
Online retailers have inexhaustible information and limitless volume. Consumers save time and money.
Big box retailers have as much volume, and a physical presence that allows consumers to touch and feel products however they choose, and have the instant gratification of an on-the-spot purchase. Customers stay in control.
Manufacturers can sit back and enjoy the ride, or they can build the value of their brands by combining their ultimate control of information with a physical and/or virtual presence that promotes a direct personal relationship with consumers.
CES and MacWorld have sprung leaks, with attendance expected to be down. MacWorld’s survival is in doubt. CES will ride out the storm, but even old salts are looking green around the gills.
The two shows suffer from exactly opposite problems. MacWorld is the victim of Apple’s retail success, while CES is being battered by the failures of consumer electronics retailers. Circuit City’s financial meltdown and Best Buy’s preemptive self-cauterization are just the beginning of what will be, for many, a wrenching disruption of the consumer electronics retailing model.
The major CE chains are headed for extinction, killed by the same trends that created them. In the 1980’s, televisions, VCRs, and audio gear became more reliable, easier to use and increasingly compliant with nascent industry standards. The need for hands-on sales, support and service expertise fell. At the same time, logistics and inventory management were transformed from back office, seat-of-the-pants jobs into scientific disciplines with seats on the board.
The less expertise required of sales and other customer-contact personnel, the less the salaries. A small team of number crunchers, transportation specialists and information technologists could run national chains of CE superstores. It didn’t matter how much money they made. In fact, the more they were paid, the farther superstore chains pulled ahead.
With size came the ability to take advantage of ever growing brand building tools. Customers might not have known exactly what they wanted, but they knew where to find it.
The superstores, however, carried the seeds of their own destruction. In a shipping container and a computer, an SKU is just an SKU. From the forklift operator on the loading dock to the clerk at the checkout register, boxes flowed through CE stores in an ever growing torrent.
The problem, for superstores, was that once the expertise required of the customer contact personnel dropped below a second threshold, it didn’t matter what was in the boxes. It could be a television or a washing machine. Or disposable diapers, or children’s clothes, or potato chips. At the same time, there was explosion upon explosion in the information available to consumers. Increasingly, consumers knew what they wanted before they ever set foot in a store.
Now, the not-so-super CE stores look like 98-pound weaklings next to the real big box retailers. The big box guys took even better advantage of the same trends and technologies that fueled the growth of CE superstores.
But they aren’t the only ones who successfully rode these giant waves. Manufacturers did too, taking ruthless advantage of new communications technology and advertising media to leap over distributors and retailers, and establish direct relationships with their millions – billions – of customers. The more that manufacturers spoke directly with consumers, the less they needed retailers. Except to drive forklifts and ring up sales.
For that, you don’t even need a bricks and mortar retailer. The Internet changed the game. If you’re Consumer X, and you have a personal relationship with Manufacturer A(pple), it’s a lot easier to go online, google “iStuff” and click on the lowest price.
If you don’t know what you want yet, you go to the A(pple) store if one is nearby, and look at the iStuff and talk to sales people in black shirts who have actually had a day and a half of training. If that’s not enough, you can have an audience at the geek altar, I mean, a conversation at the G(enius) B(ar).
CE superstores tried to optimize volume, information and physical presence, and did so successfully for a while. But only a while. Bigger players who are maximizing their advantages in just two ruling factors are circled around those erstwhile optimizers, and are rapidly crushing them. There’s no telling how long this new Iron Triangle will rule consumer electronics retailing – the world is not done changing – but it’s clearly in command now.