Tag Archives: 4k

Fixed, mobile North American broadband speeds will more than double by 2023, Cisco study says

by Steve Blum • , , , ,

Cisco forecast 2018 2023

More and more people around the world will have access to faster and faster broadband connections, with speeds for fixed and mobile service doubling and tripling by 2023, due in large part to increased global deployment of fiber to the premise and 5G technology, according to a white paper recently published by Cisco. Although North America will continue to beat world broadband speed averages, the U.S. will not be among the leaders in advanced infrastructure deployment.

Cisco’s research indicates that the average North American mobile broadband connection in 2018 ran at 22 Mbps, and that will nearly triple to 58 Mbps by 2023. 5G networks will own a large share of that increase, but the U.S. won’t earn a podium spot…

The top three 5G countries in terms of percent of devices and connections share on 5G will be China (20.7%), Japan (20.6%), and United Kingdom (19.5%), by 2023.

Globally, fixed broadband speeds will also jump, particularly in countries that, unlike the U.S., are focused on making fiber infrastructure ubiquitous…

The global average broadband speed continues to grow and will more than double from 2018 to 2023, from 45.9 Mbps to 110.4 Mbps…Several factors influence the fixed broadband-speed forecast, including the deployment and adoption of Fiber-To-The-Home (FTTH), high-speed DSL, and cable broadband adoption, as well as overall broadband penetration. Among the countries covered by this study, Japan, South Korea, and Sweden lead in terms of broadband speed largely because of their wide deployment of FTTH.

North America’s average fixed broadband download speed will be comfortably above the global average at 142 Mbps by 2023, according to the white paper. That only earns us second place on the world league table, though. Asia will still be tops at 157 Mbps, and higher growth rates – 30% annually or better – in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa mean that the gap between U.S. broadband speeds and those in the developing world will continue to close.

4K is the video, and consequently broadband, standard in 2020

by Steve Blum • , , , ,

Samsung booth ces 8jan2020

Fears that Internet routers and switches will melt under an onslaught of 8K-enabled cord cutters can be put aside for a few years, according to projections released by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). But the number of U.S. households with 4K screens will continue to grow rapidly, and that will be problematic enough for broadband service providers: 25 Mbps download speeds will be the minimum needed to serve the typical U.S. home.

8K is a big screen technology. According to Steve Koenig, CTA’s vice president of research, those sets are in the 70-inch and up range, which is more limited market – not everybody wants something that big in the living room (although the same could have been said about 40-inch to 50-inch screens a few years ago). He projects half a million 8K screen shipped into the U.S. market in 2020, which is a drop in the bucket, particularly considering that many, if not most, of those will be used for commercial and industrial applications.

On the other hand, CTA’s projections show 4K sets hitting a steady state shipment rate in the upper 20 million annual unit range for the next three years, climbing to 32 million by 2023. Using the same, back of the envelope calculations that I used a couple of years ago, that means that about half of U.S. homes have 4K screens now, and that share will climb to at least three quarters by the end of 2021. We’re to the point where 4K resolution is the market standard, and it’ll soon be almost as hard to buy anything less as it is to find a black and white TV set now.

4K video needs a steady 15 Mbps stream to function in real time, and to have a fighting chance of getting that bit rate consistently requires service specced at 25 Mbps download speeds or better. That’s the minimum set for rural homes by the federal agriculture department, and it’s the FCC’s de facto minimum as well.

California’s pitiful 6 Mbps down/1 Mbps up standard has to change too.

5G is about video and gaming, says Qualcomm exec at LG press event

by Steve Blum • , , , ,

Lg rollable tv 7jan2019

The big benefits of 5G technology and networks will be old benefits, just more of them. 5G will be sold to consumers as a way to watch high bandwidth video and play fast twitch games. Judging from LG’s opening press conference at CES in Las Vegas this morning, 5G service is all about 8K video streaming, instant 4K video downloads and low latency multiplayer gaming.

This limited focus might be industry-wide. The 5G announcements were made by a Qualcomm executive, Jim Tran, vice president of product management. Qualcomm makes core processor chips that power smartphones, 5G and otherwise. LG executives had little to say about mobile products or technology. No handsets were on display (but they did have pretty pictures) and there was no one around who could answer questions after the press event.

But whatever they eventually do, Qualcomm, and presumably LG, want to get 5G-capable products into the market quickly. “If you’re going to bring a device in 2020, you’re definitely going to be late for 5G”, Tran said. That’s a dig at Apple, which makes its own chips and plans to sit out the 2019 5G scrum.

Tran spoke the traditional words about 5G – it’ll boost cars, health care, manufacturing and smart cities to a new level – but offered no details about what those wonders will be. Qualcomm and LG are chasing 5G buzz, but doing it in a very traditional and conservative way: don’t try to sell consumers something new; sell them something they’re already using, just more of it with better quality.

The takeaway is that for the immediate future, the 5G experience will be pretty much like the 4G experience, with a bit more zip. AT&T must be hoping so – it’s slapping a 5G label on 4G service and hoping no one will notice.

Mobile non-announcements aside, the star of the show was a rollable flat screen television. The screen rises vertically out of a rectangular base, kind of like kleenex popping out of a box. It’s very cool technology – they’ve finally found a purpose for flexible video screens.

LG showcased its artificial intelligence technology again. AI is embedded in a wide range of LG products, including TVs, refrigerators and washing machines. No doubt thinking about last year’s CLOi fiasco, they kept the live demos to a minimum, though – the presentation was mostly video based, and what wasn’t appeared to be faked.

Booming prime time video peaks will slam broadband networks over the next five years

by Steve Blum • , , , ,

Three-quarters of all Internet traffic is video and that share will grow to 82% over the next five years, according to the latest update to Cisco’s Visual Networking Index, which is an ongoing broadband tracking study published by the company. Cisco also projects that global Internet traffic will more than triple over that time.

In other words, video is why there’s rapidly rising demand for faster broadband service speeds, and greater capacity. Not just because there’s more of it, but also because people don’t watch it consistently over the course of the day: the ballooning volume of video traffic is crammed into prime viewing hours. Cisco also predicts that the busiest hour of any given Internet service provider’s day will get even busier, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37%, versus a 24-hour average CAGR of 30%…

Video is the underlying reason for accelerated busy hour traffic growth. Unlike other forms of traffic, which are spread evenly throughout the day (such as web browsing and file sharing), video tends to have a “prime time.” Because of video consumption patterns, the Internet now has a much busier busy hour. Because video has a higher peak-to-average ratio than data or file sharing, and because video is gaining traffic share, peak Internet traffic will grow faster than average traffic. The growing gap between peak and average traffic is amplified further by the changing composition of Internet video. Real-time video such as live video, ambient video, and video calling has a peak-to-average ratio that is higher than on-demand video.

To keep pace, broadband providers will have to offer faster speeds to meet the heavier bandwidth requirements of live video and higher definition formats such as 4k television, and increase network capacity to maintain those speeds during the nightly viewing spikes.

Fiber-to-the-premise networks can scale like that. Some copper systems can probably keep pace too, if ISPs spend enough on upgrades. Those are investments that can pay off in the high potential areas monopoly-model telecoms companies, such as AT&T and Comcast, focus on. But fixed wireless systems, particularly of the sort that AT&T and Frontier plan to deploy in rural areas using federal subsidies, cannot.

More video devices, over-the-top subscriptions drive broadband demand

by Steve Blum • , , , ,

A couple more data points to add to the how fast is fast enough discussion: Parks Associates, a market research company, just published a report showing that consumers are paying for more Internet video subscriptions and buying more devices to watch them on…

U.S. broadband households have on average more than seven video access devices, including TVs, computers, tablets, and smartphones…

“Nearly 40% of U.S. broadband households subscribe to multiple [over-the-top] video services, and consumers expect to access their high-quality content on any platform, at any location where they live or go for work or fun,” said Elizabeth Parks, SVP, Parks Associates.

While most U.S. homes subscribe to either one Internet video – i.e. over-the-top – platform or none, the number buying everything in sight is growing. Combine that with the fact that those homes have the means to watch several different streams at once, and you come to question of how much residential bandwidth is needed now, and will be needed in the future?

Many of those devices will be 4K – ultra high definition – capable. By the end of next year half of U.S. households will have 4K sets. Adding in computers and mobile devices that already have ultra high resolution displays gets you to the reasonable assumption that it’ll soon be commonplace, if it isn’t already, for homes to access multiple 4K streams at the same time.

Broadband service at 25 Mbps download speed is enough to support a single 4K stream, after allowing for nominal congestion and other baseline household needs, such as web browsing or home automation. But given that each stream chews up a steady 15 Mbps, 25 Mbps won’t be enough when – not if – someone wants to watch something else.

Outside of California, the debate centers on the federal standard of 25 Mbps download and 3 Mbps upload speed – is it enough? Here in the Golden State, though, lawmakers are listening to telco and cable lobbyists, who want to protect monopolies from consumer expectations, and lowering standards, most recently to 6 Mbps down/1 Mbps up. That’s certainly not enough.

15 Mbps is the holy grail for 4K video

by Steve Blum • , ,

Different online video companies put it differently, but the net result is the same: if you want to watch 4K streaming video – aka ultra high definition – you need a broadband connection that reliably delivers 15 Mbps and has enough head room to support whatever other Internet traffic is passing in and out of your house.

A story by Rob Pegoraro in USA Today provides a run down of the 4K bandwidth recommendations from the two big dogs in the over-the-top video game…

  • Amazon says “you need an Internet connection of at least 15 Mbps to watch videos in UHD”.
  • Netflix recommends “an internet connection speed of at least 25 megabits per second to stream Ultra HD titles”. But it also says you’ll burn through 7 gigabytes an hour of your data cap. Taking rounding into account, that’s the same as saying you need a steady stream at 15 Mbps over the course of that hour.

Given that Internet service providers don’t really promise to deliver a particular service level – typically, speeds are offered up to a certain level – a 15 Mbps download package won’t cut it. So Netflix’s 25 Mbps recommendation is a little more realistic, assuming you’re the only person in your home and you turn everything else off.

That rate coincides with the Federal Communications Commission’s 25 Mbps down/3 Mbps up standard for advanced services capability.

It’s also where the market is heading. Big cable companies, which typically offer download speeds starting at 60 Mbps and frequently climbing to 200 Mbps or more, own 61% of U.S. broadband subscribers. Telcos, which have a 34% market share, struggle to get to 25 Mbps on even recently upgraded and well maintained copper systems.

With 4K television sets expected to be in half of U.S. homes by the end of next year, the gap between cable and telco market share, and the gap between cable-rich urban and telco-monopoly rural areas – will continue to grow.

4K TV will be in half of U.S. homes by end of 2019

by Steve Blum • , , ,

The consumer adoption rate of 4K television sets blew past last year’s expectations, climbing to 25% of U.S. households by January 2018, according to the Consumer Technology Association (CTA). My rough estimate that ultra-high definition 4K sets would be in 20% of U.S. homes by the end of 2017 was low. The adoption rate grew even faster, amidst falling prices, increased content availability and 4K’s status as the default standard for large screen TVs (50 inches and larger).

CTA isn’t releasing a household penetration projection for 2018, but its U.S. Consumer Technology Sales and Forecasts (January 2018) report predicts that 22 million 4K sets will be sold in the U.S. this year and 25 million in 2019 (versus 17 million in 2017). That would imply that the 4K adoption rate will continue to accelerate in 2018 and 2019.

There are 120 million homes with televisions in the U.S. A 25% adoption rate translates to 30 million with at least one 4K set. If all 22 million of projected unit sales ended up in homes without a 4K set, then the adoption rate would climb to 43% by the end of this year. But some of those sets will end up in homes that already have one – as replacements or second (third, fourth…) sets – and in commercial establishments.

Let’s do the same kind of back-of-the-envelope estimating as last year (which turned out to be conservative). Make a wild guess and say a fifth of sets sold will end up in existing 4K homes and another fifth will go to bars, offices and other businesses. That leaves three-fifths to add to the 4K universe, which would result in a 36% adoption rate at year end 2018, and 49% by the end of 2019.

In other words, the number of U.S. homes with 4K viewing capability – and commensurate bandwidth demand – will all but double in two years.

Video product demand shifts away from TVs in U.S. homes

by Steve Blum • ,

U.S. consumers are buying bigger TVs with better picture quality – 4K ultra high definition sets selling fast and could be in 20% of homes by 2019 – but their love affair with the small screen could be on the wane as they increasingly turn to even tinier displays. That’s the conclusion of a periodic survey by the federal energy department.

The study was conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIE), an agency that, among other things, analyses adoption of consumer electronics products in order to track and forecast household energy use. Televisions and other video display products “account for about 6% of all electricity consumption in U.S. homes”, but the product mix is changing…

An average of 2.3 televisions were used in American homes in 2015, down from an average of 2.6 televisions per household in 2009. The number of homes with three or more televisions declined from the previous survey conducted in 2009, and a larger share of households reported not using a television at all…

Entertainment and information devices, in particular, vary by age: younger households tend to have a lower concentration of televisions per person and a higher concentration of portable devices such as laptops and smart phones.

The percentage of TV-free homes has doubled since 2009. In previous surveys going back to 1997, the fraction of U.S households with no television set at all held steady at around 1.3%. That figured jumped to 2.6% in 2015. The past six years have also seen a drop in the proportion of homes with three or more TV sets – it grew fairly consistently from 30% in 1997 to 44% in 2009, but then fell back to 39% in 2015.

Age is also a factor. The younger the household, the more likely it is to have fewer TVs and more smartphones and laptops, while older households have more televisions and desktop computers.

Broadband capacity crunch looms as 4K adoption accelerates

by Steve Blum • , ,

Broadband hits the video wall.

On current trends, at least 25 million U.S. consumers will be watching ultra high definition video programming via 4K television sets within two years. That’s a very rough estimate, but if it’s off, it’s probably low. But let’s run with it for the moment.

It means that at least 20% of U.S. homes will be looking for 4K-quality video programming. Satellite is a natural source for it and cable companies will try to push some through as well. But much of the new, original programming that’ll be available will be produced by over-the-top video platforms like Netflix or Amazon, and consumers will want to watch that too.

Right now, it takes a steady, 15 Mbps streaming connection to watch 4K video via the Internet, and there’s no immediate prospect of minimum speeds dropping significantly.

That has big implications for the broadband business. Watching 4K via DSL will be impossible for most subscribers and very difficult for the rest, and you can forget about trying to do it via any kind of affordable wireless connection. Cable modem service can deliver enough speed to a home, but there’s a backhaul bottleneck that will limit the bandwidth that’s available on an aggregate, neighborhood basis. If a fifth of the subscribers on a 500-home node are watching one 4K stream each, you’ll need a gigabit and a half of steady backhaul, and that’s out of the reach of many, if not most, cable systems. Depending on design and provisioning, fiber networks can have similar capacity constraints.

The fall back excuse that Internet service providers – cable, telco and all flavors of wireless – trot out when defending poorly performing systems or pressed about upgrade plans and the need for competition is no one actually needs that much bandwidth. Even if it was a valid argument in the past, the adoption rate of 4K televisions sets and service is quickly rendering it completely false.

4K TV sales growing, with 20% U.S. market share in sight

by Steve Blum • , , ,

About three-quarters of all large screen televisions – those more than 50 inches – that were sold last year in the U.S. (and worldwide) were 4K, ultra-high definition (UHD) sets, according to Paul Gagnon, the director of tv sets research for IHS Markit. By 2018, all but 100% of big screens sold will be 4K-capable. In raw numbers, the Consumer Technology Association – the trade association for the U.S. consumer electronics industry – estimates that more than 80 million 4K sets will be sold worldwide this year, and next year the total will be in the 100 million unit range.

Adding CTA’s numbers up, by the end of 2018, there will be something like 300 million 4K television sets in homes and business worldwide. We don’t have sales figures for 2016 yet, but in 2015 the U.S. accounted for about 20% of 4K sales. That share appears to be dropping, though. According to CTA, 4K sales in China have been accelerating and account for the largest chunk worldwide. But even if you discount the U.S. share by half – make it 10% – we’re still looking at something like an addressable universe of 30 million 4K sets.

If you make another back-of-the-envelope cut and say that about a fifth of those – 5 or 6 million – are used in commercial establishments or for industrial purposes, then the ballpark estimate is that within two years, 20% of U.S. homes will have 4K UHD sets.

That’s good news for the consumer electronics industry, which has seen falling television sales. CTA estimates that worldwide TV sales have slipped by about 20 million units since 2014 and the dollar value is dropping even faster, at more than 10% per year. A quantum jump in picture quality will be a good reason for consumers to replace HDTV sets that are still working just fine.